Gas
GAS Forecasting System — Backend
ASP.NET Core 8 Web API powering the Guided-Adaptive Smoothing (GAS) forecasting system. Implements SES, HWES, and the hybrid GAS algorithm with grid-search parameter optimization, error metrics, and PostgreSQL persistence via Neon.
Research
Title: Guided-Adaptive Smoothing: An Error-Driven Hybrid SES–HWES Framework for Multi-Path Range Forecasting in Uncertain Time Series
Authors: Jherson Aguto · Mark John Panganiban
Adviser: Dr. Ricardo Q. Camungao
Institution: CCSICT — Isabela State University, Echague Campus
Tech Stack
| Layer | Technology |
|---|---|
| Runtime | .NET 8 |
| Framework | ASP.NET Core Web API |
| ORM | Entity Framework Core 9 |
| Database | PostgreSQL (Neon serverless) |
| Algorithms | C# — SES, HWES, GAS |
| Math | MathNet.Numerics |
| Docs | Swagger / OpenAPI |
| Hosting | Render (free tier) |
Algorithms
SES — Simple Exponential Smoothing
Single smoothing parameter α, optimized via grid search. Best for stationary data with no trend or seasonality.
HWES — Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing (Additive)
Three parameters α, β, γ optimized via grid search. Handles trend and seasonality.
GAS — Guided-Adaptive Smoothing
Hybrid framework that:
- Runs SES and HWES in parallel on 75% training data
- Computes inverse-error weights from MSE performance
- Produces three prediction paths: Weighted SES, Weighted HWES, GAS Combined (average)
- Evaluates all paths with MSE, MAE, RMSE, MAPE
API Endpoints
| Method | Route | Description |
|---|---|---|
POST |
/api/upload/csvColumnNames |
Parse CSV, return column names |
POST |
/api/upload/csvActualValues |
Upload CSV column data |
GET |
/api/Read/ActualValuesDescriptions |
List all uploaded datasets |
GET |
/api/Read/ActualValuesByColumnName |
Get data by column name |
POST |
/api/algorithm/forecast |
Run forecast (train/test validation) |
POST |
/api/algorithm/prediction |
Run future prediction |
GET |
/api/ping |
Health / keepalive check |
DELETE |
/api/Delete/AllActualData |
Delete all uploaded data |
DELETE |
/api/Delete/ActualDataByID |
Delete data by ID |
Full interactive docs available at /swagger when running.
Local Development
Prerequisites
- .NET 8 SDK
- PostgreSQL or a Neon account
Setup
# Clone
git clone https://github.com/bullet162/Gas.git
cd Gas
# Set connection string (never commit real credentials)
# appsettings.Development.json is gitignored — create it:
cat > appsettings.Development.json << 'EOF'
{
"ConnectionStrings": {
"DefaultConnection": "your_neon_or_local_postgres_connection_string"
}
}
EOF
# Apply migrations
dotnet ef database update
# Run
dotnet run
API will be available at http://localhost:5297. Swagger UI at http://localhost:5297/swagger.
Environment Variables (Production)
Set on Render dashboard — never commit to source:
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
DATABASE_URL |
Full Neon PostgreSQL connection string |
PORT |
Set automatically by Render |
Deployment
Render auto-deploys from the main branch using the Dockerfile. Set the DATABASE_URL environment variable in the Render dashboard — never commit it.
Render Environment Variables
Go to your Render service → Environment → Add the following:
| Variable | Value |
|---|---|
DATABASE_URL |
postgresql://neondb_owner:<password>@ep-round-sun-a1pq3far-pooler.ap-southeast-1.aws.neon.tech/neondb?sslmode=require&channel_binding=require |
Render sets PORT automatically — the Dockerfile reads it at runtime.
Branches
| Branch | Purpose |
|---|---|
main |
Single branch — Render auto-deploys from here |
GitHub Actions
| Workflow | Trigger | Description |
|---|---|---|
deploy.yml |
Push to main |
Builds Svelte frontend and deploys to Firebase Hosting |
keepalive.yml |
Cron (Mon–Fri 6am–5pm PHT) | Pings /api/ping every 10 min to prevent Render cold starts |
Project Structure
├── Algorithm/ # SES, HWES, GAS implementations + grid search
├── Controllers/ # API controllers
├── Data/
│ ├── AppDbContext.cs
│ ├── Entities/ # EF Core models
│ └── Repositories/ # Data access layer
├── Dto/ # Request/response models
├── Migrations/ # EF Core PostgreSQL migrations
├── Utils/ # CSV parser, stopwatch
├── frontend/ # Svelte + Vite SPA
│ ├── src/
│ │ ├── lib/ # Components, api.ts, store.ts
│ │ ├── App.svelte
│ │ └── main.ts
│ └── vite.config.ts
├── .github/workflows/
│ ├── deploy.yml # Firebase frontend deploy
│ ├── keepalive.yml # Render ping Mon–Fri 6am–5pm PHT
│ └── sync-stable.yml # main → stable-backend mirror
├── firebase.json
├── .firebaserc
└── Program.cs
License
Academic research implementation. All rights reserved © 2025 Jherson Aguto, Mark John Panganiban.
